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Who will be paramount leader of Iran on January 1st 2027?
33
Ṁ350Ṁ3.3k
2027
34%
Other
18%
Mojtaba Khamenei
11%
Reza Pahlavi
10%
Alireza Arafi
8%
Hassan Khomenei
3%
Mohammad Reza Aref
3%
Ali Larijani
3%
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
3%
Sadiq Larijani
2%
Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i
2%
Mohsen Araki
1.4%
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf

The paramount leader is whoever the de facto leader of Iran is, regardless of their specific job title. Currently this is Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

If there is a complicated messy civil war, this goes by who controls the capital and governing apparatus. I intend to go by a similar standard to the CIA World Factbook or the Wikipedia infobox, though I don't commit to matching them if they're outdated or inaccurate.

  • Update 2026-03-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Iran adopts a constitutional monarchy or similar system where the head of state has little de facto power, the market resolves to whoever holds the most de facto power (e.g., the head of government), not the nominal head of state.

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@Tetraspace What they end up with with a constitutional monarchy where the head of state has little de facto power? In other words, would you consider Charles III the paramount leader of the UK?

@archvenison If the head of government has the most de facto power it resolves to them; the paramount leader of the UK is Keir Starmer. I phrased it as "paramount leader" because indeed I don't know specifically the constitutional form that Iran will take in 2027

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