The market resolves based on who actually assumes the office of Supreme Leader, not who is elected or nominated. Acting/Interim appointments count as holding the position if they formally assume the office.
If position abolished, resolves position abolished.
Resolves based on credible media reporting and official Iran sources..
Resolves same as:
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnextiranleader/who-will-be-khameneis-successor/kxnextiranleader-45jan01
N/a if Khamenei remains in power and Kalshi resolves all options NO
Update 2026-02-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Interim leaders and position abolishment: If an interim leader is in place and then the position is abolished, the market resolves to position abolished unless the interim leader formally assumed office before abolishment.
Update 2026-03-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will not resolve to a percentage in case of death or other ambiguous outcomes. It will resolve based on the actual result (i.e., to a specific person, position abolished).
Update 2026-03-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve based on Kalshi's resolution, not the US President or other sources, as the primary reference.
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@Jack1 https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2029594317690417369
Is the president a credible source?
@prismatic Trump says 1. Majtaba Khamenei is the most likely successor, not that he is the Supreme Leader of Iran 2. that he was personally involved in selecting the leader of Venezuela...but Acting President Delcy Rodríguez wasn't selected by him she was was always going to be the successor under Venezuela's constitution given that she was the Vice President at the time.
(I am still guessing Mojtaba Khamenei will be the successor, but he isn't yet!)
@JoshSnider I have no idea but if it isn't Mojtaba Khamenei or Alireza Arafi the overwhelming likelihood is that it will be someone not on the list. I think the current (as of this post) pricing for Mojtaba Khamenei are reasonable...other might be high because Alireza Arafi is probably under-rated.
@Jack1 I ponder the discrepancy with his odds incredibly higher on another market:
https://manifold.markets/killer_queen/will-ali-larijani-succeed-khamenei?r=Q2h1bWNodWx1bQ
@Chumchulum I mean, Ali Larijani is plausibly one of the 'defacto supreme leaders' but he wont get the title because he's a general not a cleric.
@Dssc thank you for bringing that to my attention. Traders, please comment below and I’ll consider what you all say tomorrow and then make a final decision. I lean ignoring the resolve to %, and only resolving to final yes answer, but welcome all arguments.
@Jack1 I'm against resolving this early if someone dies. People dying is an expected thing at this point.
@Dssc @Jack1
I think the market should resolve 1/0 based on the actual successor. Our market was created later than Kalshi when a successor had to be chosen. Kalshi also seems to be overcomplicating things with all these rule changes. It almost creates backdoors around candidates depending on how they interpret the death rule now that the father has died and trading continues.
@Jack1 Since this question came up here, I created a related market about whether Kalshi will actually use the “death settles to last traded price” rule:
https://manifold.markets/Tantalost/will-kalshi-use-a-pricebased-settle?r=VGFudGFsb3N0