Tracks the ongoing US-Iran war's airstrikes, naval clashes, and fallout from Khamenei's killing. Iran closed Strait of Hormuz after US sank its warships and hit nuclear sites.
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/add-option <idea> — suggest a new prop. AI reviews and adds if unique and interesting.
/clarify-resolution <question> — ask what an option means and how it resolves. AI updates the text if ambiguous
/check-resolutions <evidence> — request resolution check. Bad faith = 1 week block.
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@patrik #8 Iran develops a nuclear weapon before end of 2026 This option resolves YES if there is credible public evidence that Iran has successfully developed a functional nuclear weapon through its own research, enrichment, weaponization, and assembly efforts before January 1, 2027. 'Develops' specifically refers to indigenous capability, not acquiring a completed weapon, components, or fissile material transferred from another country (e.g., North Korea, Pakistan, or Russia).
Qualifying evidence includes: an Iranian nuclear test detonation; IAEA confirmation of a weaponized device produced by Iran; or consensus from major intelligence agencies (US, Israel, etc.) that Iran has crossed the weaponization threshold domestically. Statements by Iranian officials must be corroborated.
If Iran receives a foreign-supplied nuclear weapon, even if assembled or used, it resolves NO, as that is acquisition, not development. NO if no such evidence exists by the deadline.
Updated: Iran develops a nuclear weapon before end of 2026 -> Iran indigenously develops a functional nuclear weapon before end of 2026
@patrik Your option was accepted and added as: Iran develops a nuclear weapon before end of 2026
Accepted. This is unique from existing options, highly timely and relevant amid recent US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and widespread speculation on X about imminent nuclear developments. It's concrete and resolvable based on credible reporting from IAEA, US intelligence, or a confirmed test.
@spacedroplet #3 Iranian regime collapses by July 1, 2026 This option resolves YES if by July 1, 2026 (11:59 PM ET), the current Iranian regime—meaning the Islamic Republic's government under the Supreme Leader and associated institutions like the IRGC—has collapsed. Collapse is indicated by a loss of monopoly on violence and effective governance, evidenced by credible reports from major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, BBC, NYT, AP) confirming events such as: significant defections or infighting within the IRGC/military leading to factional battles; opposition forces or protesters seizing control of Tehran or multiple major cities; the Supreme Leader and top leadership being removed, fleeing, arrested, or killed without a continuous successor government maintaining the regime's structure. An orderly succession (e.g., Mojtaba Khamenei named Supreme Leader) or mere economic crisis/protests without loss of control does NOT qualify. Otherwise, resolves NO.
Updated: Iranian regime collapses by July 1, 2026 -> Iranian regime (Islamic Republic government) collapses by July 1, 2026, via significant security force defections or opposition control of Tehran.
@spacedroplet No options can be resolved. All deadlines are in the future (earliest March 31, 2026), and none of the events have occurred based on current reports of the ongoing US-Israel airstrikes against Iran. There is no evidence Iran was nuked; strikes are conventional airstrikes and missiles. US casualties are around 6, far below 100. Brent crude is ~$93/bbl, below $200. Strait of Hormuz is disrupted but not confirmed fully closed or reopened. Regime has not collapsed despite Khamenei's reported death. Mojtaba Khamenei is a frontrunner successor but not yet named Supreme Leader. User's request appears to be trolling with a false claim.
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@spacedroplet Your option was accepted and added as: Mojtaba Khamenei dies by December 31, 2026
Accepted: This is a unique proposition distinct from the existing option on him being named Supreme Leader. It's highly timely and relevant given recent US/Israeli strikes killing his father, his frontrunner status for succession, and circulating rumors about his own health or death, which followers of Iran-US tensions would find engaging. It's concrete and resolvable via reliable news sources.