Resolves YES if Anthropic is assigned a post-money valuation at a higher dollar value than OpenAI's last assigned post-money valuation at any point before midnight Pacific Time on January 1, 2027. Resolves NO otherwise.

If a valuation figure is given in the news but it's not stated whether it is pre-money or post-money, we will assume the figure is post-money for the purpose of the comparison. If a pre-money valuation is announced instead, we will add the amount invested to get the post-money valuation.

(Anthropic's valuation history is shown here; OpenAI's valuation history is shown here.)

Inspired by https://manifold.markets/SG/anthropic-flips-openai-before-2028 but with a sooner close date.

Anthropic flips OpenAI before 2028?

29% chance. Anthropic must raise $10m+ (or have $10m+ in equity traded by third parties) at a valuation that's higher than the last valuation of OpenAI (where $10m+ was raised / sold) any time before the start of 2028. [image]https://x.com/nearcyan/status/1962991398359335325