Resolves to an option IF EITHER the Kalshi or Polymarket question on U.S. confirmation of aliens resolves YES in 2026.
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxaliens/aliens/kxaliens-27
https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027
NOTE: neither of these markets requires aliens to actually exist. They just require a cabinet member or federal agency to definitively state that aliens exist.
If both resolve NO, then this resolves to N/A.
If EITHER resolves YES, then this resolves to the closest option among the five provided options. No other categories will be added.
If MULTIPLE types of aliens are confirmed by the U.S. simultaneously, then this resolves equally to those types. I will resolve as soon as Kalshi/Polymarket resolves YES, and will not wait the rest of the year to see if more aliens are "confirmed" by the U.S.
I reserve the right to a PROB resolution in cases where there's serious gray area.
I will not bet in this market.
People are also trading
@bens The crazy thing is that aliens are absolutely guaranteed. But good luck even finding one credible bit of evidence, or even something that didn't originate in some sci-fi show. The universe is just really big, and most of it is not aliens.
@bens If a flying saucer turned up, hovered outside your house and flew off, this is probably the priority order the explain it:
Weird aircraft, maybe a strange shaped ion-craft.
A lighter than air craft, like a balloon.
A rare atmospheric effect, there are dozens of weird ones that only happen very occasionally.
Something further away that looks closer.
…
A hallucination/dream.
Aliens
@ChurlishGambit because they’d be fairly priced at like 1% and they’d overlap with the other categories