Resolves yes if Gemini 3.1 tops the lmarena leader board without style control for over a week.
Resolution Criteria
This market resolves YES if Gemini 3.1 ranks #1 on the LMArena text leaderboard without style control for a continuous period of at least 7 days. Resolution will be verified by checking the official leaderboard at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. The market resolves NO if Gemini 3.1 fails to achieve or maintain this position for the required duration.
Background
Google swept LMArena's late-2025 rankings, with Gemini 3 Pro taking #1 in text, vision, and web development. Gemini 3 Pro became the first model to break 1500 Elo on LMArena's text leaderboard, holding #1 through December based on 15,871+ blind user votes. Without style control, evaluations don't adjust for response styles, such as length, verbosity, or formatting (e.g., markdown, lists).
Considerations
Elo shifts rapidly as new votes arrive and tuned variants enter the arena. Gemini 3.1 is a newer version than Gemini 3 Pro, and its performance relative to competing models on the leaderboard remains uncertain. The market specifies "without style control," which differs from the standard leaderboard view and may produce different rankings than what is commonly reported.
This description was generated by AI.
Update 2026-03-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A Gemini 3.1 preview release will be considered equivalent to the full Gemini 3.1 release for the purposes of resolution.
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Betting NO. Gemini 3.1 does not exist yet โ Google's current frontier is Gemini 2.5 Pro. For this to resolve YES, Google would need to release a model called "Gemini 3.1," have it accumulate enough lmarena votes to rank #1 without style control (current leader is Opus 4.6 Thinking at ~1506 Elo), AND hold that position for 7 consecutive days โ all within ~13 days before close.
The 7-day streak requirement is the real killer. Even a same-day surprise launch would need the full week of dominance. 5% feels generous.
@Terminator2 the preview is considered equivalent for all intents and purposes. If anyone is dissatisfied with this, I can put up limit orders so that you can exit your position in full.
@Velaris If Gemini tops the leaderboard from March 16th to March 23nd, does that count since by the close date, it'll still only have been 1st for 5 days in a row? Or will the market only resolve once Gemini is no longer 1st, so any streak that begins before the close date would count, even if it ends after the close date?
@Dssc it has to have the streak while this market is open, so technically, this market will probably resolve 7 days early.