Any number of these conflicts might resolve Yes this year, once they enter the Minor Wars or Major Wars categories on Wikipedia's List of Ongoing Armed Conflicts.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_armed_conflicts
I will be fairly liberal with what counts as a conflict. Unlike previous versions of this market, we are now using article titles for existing civil conflicts, and are only using country pairings for conflicts not already on the page. If a new conflict article or country pairing gets folded into an existing article, the question will only resolve Yes if the encompassing article is both over the threshold AND the beligerents from the country pairing fought in the current year. This means that changes in Wiki policy or recategorization of past articles should not count by themselves for this market. But a newly escalated India vs. Pakistan conflict can resolve Yes whether it's folded into the Kashmir article or not. Likewise, article vandalism or edit wars will be given time to resolve on Wikipedia before resolving here.
A conflict will only resolve N/A if there is a high-traffic multi-party trading event that is driven by a misunderstanding with no reasonable solution after asking non-invested mods. One guy misreading the wikipedia rules won't result in an N/A, but 12 people arguing about a 5-way civil war whose article is still getting vandalized in February of 2027 might. If a wiki entry is added to Minor Wars or Major Wars categories merely because of a retroactive addendum to its 2025 numbers, that will not be sufficient to resolve it Yes for 2026. This market resolves at the end of January 2027 in order to give trailing death toll numbers one extra month to be added. At that time, all unresolved conflicts will resolve No.
The spirit of this market is concerned with actual deadly escalation of group conflict. Feel free to ask questions in the comments.
1,000People are also trading
Wikipedia still hasn't added the United States to the belligerents list for the Arab-Israeli Conflct, but it's true by even lower bound estimates that over 1000 people have died in a war between the US and Iran this year, so I have to resolve it Yes in the spirit of the market. Very weird formatting choice by Wikipedia to put an American-Persian conflict under that umbrella, but I hope folks feel I did the best resolution I could.
Wikipedia still hasn't added the United States to the belligerents list for the Arab-Israeli Conflct, but it's true by even lower bound estimates that over 1000 people have died in a war between the US and Iran this year, so I have to resolve it Yes in the spirit of the market. Very weird formatting choice by Wikipedia to put an American-Persian conflict under that umbrella, but I hope folks feel I did the best resolution I could.
@Panfilo why is this so high? It was already categorized as major war prior the market opening?
@prismatic I did not think they would put Operation Epic Fury under the Arab-Israeli conflict, much as it is darkly funny to do so. It's literally an American-Persian conflict! Thinking about what I'll do if it stays there. Will not personally bet on it in the mean time.
@prismatic The page for the specific new conflict seems to list over 1000 killed, and I will likely resolve the question Yes as an unfortunate edge case due to the spirit of the market within a few days as the numbers get more confirmed.
@Panfilo Can I at least get a refund on my trade then? I get why the explanation to resolve it that way, but US vs. Iran was never listed as a conflict to begin with, and went straight to major war, so I feel it's unfair for me to lose money on this trade.
@prismatic Well I didn't tell you to bet either way, but if it's a small number, sure. What is your current loss on that specific question?
I'd like to note that although Wikipedia has added losses between Afghanistan and Pakistan so far this year under the Insurgencies in Pakistan total, they might have some article consolidations regarding the escalating hot war between the countries. I have sold my small position in that question and will not buy more until Wikipedia makes their stance more clear, so that I can be neutral if I have to add a separate question.
@ChrisMillsc5f7 The drug war is already considered major on the chart. Do you think Mexico is going to fight another country this year?