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If passed, will 2 or more AI orgs significantly shift their operations from California and give SB 1047 as the reason?
15
Ṁ1kṀ2.6k
2029
12%
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AI Safety
California
California Politics
AI Regulation
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@NathanpmYoung I think this resolves N/A, since SB 1047 didn't pass.

bought Ṁ1,250 NO

This isn't happening. SB1047 doesn't care where your company is located. It applies to companies doing business in California.

What qualifies as an "AI org"? Do random small startups count?

(I don't think they should, but won't bet on this market without clarity on that)

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If not passed, will there be any open source model that would have been covered by SB 1047, by January 1st 2027?
65% chance
AI tools will cause mass casualties or $500mn harm before 2029 such as would have been covered under SB 1047.
23% chance
Will there be an AI ballot measure in California in 2026?
54% chance
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50% chance
Will California impose restrictions on training new advanced AIs before 2030?
18% chance
If passed, will SB 1047 cover any Open Source model before 2029, not including those of Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, etc?
45% chance
If SB 1047 is not passed and an AI tool causes $500mn of damages, will the respective AI lab pay over 10% in damages?
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