This market resolves YES if Ytterbium-176 production from ASP Isotopes in the last 15 months (excluding the last 3 months) exceeds 4.0 kg by 2029-12-31.
Measurement methodology:
Calculate total Ytterbium-176 production that was completed during the 15-month period ending 3 months before the settlement date
For 2029-12-31 settlement: measure production from 2028-07-04 to 2029-10-02
"Production" means enriched Ytterbium-176 that reached target purity (≥99.75%)
Sum all production from ASP Isotopes' Quantum Enrichment facilities
YES if:
Verified production in the measurement window totals ≥4.0 kg of Yb-176
Sources confirm production volumes through SEC filings, press releases, or earnings calls
NO if:
Total production remains below 4.0 kg
Only announced capacity (not actual production) would exceed threshold
Resolution sources (priority order):
ASP Isotopes SEC filings (10-Q, 10-K)
ASP Isotopes press releases and investor relations announcements
Earnings call transcripts with production figures
Direct company communications confirming production volumes
1,000The recent selloff looks more like position‑driven volatility than a change in fundamentals: ASP has already proven commercial Yb‑176 production, is targeting ≥1 kg/year with a clear path to higher throughput, and radiopharmaceutical demand for Lu‑177/Tb‑161 is structurally ramping. Unless ASP suffers a major setback (capex/financing crunch or severe operational failure), the 4 kg cumulative threshold by 2029 appears modest relative to their stated plans.