Resolves according to the winning margin of James Talarico in the Texas Democratic primary for senate on March 3 2026. This is for the first round only. Any potential runoff excluded. If Talarico loses everything resolves no.
Update 2026-03-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Multiple answers can resolve YES. If Talarico wins by a certain margin, all answer options at or below that margin will resolve YES. For example, if Talarico wins by 30%, all margin thresholds up to and including 30% would resolve YES.
Update 2026-03-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will remain open during vote counting as results are released, and will stay open until a winner is announced (rather than closing at the originally scheduled time).
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@Jack1 I believe it's because a lot of harris county rolled in and it looks even better for Talarico.
I think I simulatenously severely misread the kalshi market, as I saw the $4m total liquidity and as a result was severely overconfident about the deviation being higher due to not realizing the extreme positions only had like <$100 orders from probably just random gamblers and were not real odds, significantly overshot my kelly by filling that M1k limit order, and didn't get bailed out by luck. ~1k loss isn't that bad though.
The primary is today!
This market will remain open as voting results are released and until a winner is announced
Please manage limit orders accordingly
Thank you
@Chumchulum resolves to all correct answers. Eg. If talarico won by 30% everything would resolve yes.