Lunar Gateway first occupied by a crew before 1/1/2029?
11
Ṁ150Ṁ6852029
3%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Other resolution criteria than time are the same as in the corresponding Metaculus market.
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13785/first-occupation-of-lunar-gateway/
Update 2026-02-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the Lunar Gateway program is cancelled without ever being occupied, this market will resolve No.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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