Which of the following things happen in relation to the Texas Senate Election in 2026?
8
Ṁ275Ṁ587Dec 31
75%
John Cornyn is the GOP nominee
55%
The GOP nominee outruns Joe Biden's 2020 margin
34%
The GOP nominee outruns Ted Cruz's 2018 margin
25%
Ken Paxton is the GOP nominee
17%
One of the two GOP runoff candidates drops out
5%
Ken Paxton is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to an executive branch position
5%
John Cornyn resigns from the Senate early
5%
Ken Paxton resigns as Texas AG early
5%
Ken Paxton becomes a federal judge
4%
Ken Paxton is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to head a major department (i.e. DOJ, FBI)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?
29% chance
Who will win Texas’ U.S. Senate race in 2026? (Nov 3 general election)
Which party will win the 2026 Texas Senate race?
Who will win the 2026 Senate Election in Texas?
Will Texas elect a Democratic Senator in 2026, and will they elect at least 14 Democratic Representatives?
Will a Republican win in the following US Senate 2026 elections?
Who Will Win the 2026 Republican Primary Election for US Senate in Texas?
Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?
60% chance
Who will win in the Texas Senate Race?
Texas Governor's Race: Which party will win in 2026?