If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?
11
Ṁ1kṀ4722031
71%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
See https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mostly-skeptical-thoughts-on-the. Resolves N/A if Scott Alexander doesn't do this in 2030.
Related markets:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?
93% chance
If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?
71% chance
If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 1% or less?
17% chance
In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?
87% chance
Who will publicly say they have/had an AI bot as romantic and/or sexual partner before 2030?
Will the total user count for AI chatbots decline by more than a factor of 7 between now and the end of 2026?
10% chance
Will a romantic relationship with an AI chatbot comprise 25% of all relationships within the USA before the year 2030?
12% chance
At the beginning of 2030, what percentage of Manifold users will have a strongly negative opinion of Scott Alexander?
11% chance
Will Scott Alexander (ACX author) come to Austin and attend or host a public event in 2026?
23% chance
Will I succumb to AI psychosis before 2032?
9% chance