Following the US-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, this market asks: which sovereign nation will the United States next conduct a kinetic military attack against?

This market resolves when the US conducts a kinetic military operation against a new country not currently under active US attack. Iran is excluded as prior a event. The operation must take place before 2029-12-31.

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to the first country against which the US conducts a qualifying military attack after February 28, 2026.

A qualifying attack is defined as:

• Any use of US military or intelligence personnel to conduct kinetic operations on the sovereign territory of a state. This includes airstrikes, cruise missile strikes, special operations raids, naval bombardment, ground incursions, and forcible seizure of persons.

• A single strike is sufficient; sustained operations are not required.

• The attack must be on sovereign territory of a recognized state, not international waters or airspace.

• The attack must be confirmed by credible reporting (major wire services, official US government statements, or confirmation by the targeted state).

Does NOT include:

• Purely cyber operations with no physical/kinetic component

• Sanctions, blockades, or economic warfare alone

• Covert operations that remain unconfirmed/unacknowledged at time of resolution

• Continuation of current Iran operations (strikes that are part of the ongoing Feb 28 campaign)

• Strikes against non-state actors where the US is operating with the explicit consent of the host government (e.g., counterterrorism operations conducted with host nation approval)